Comments on: Freeman Dyson’s opinions on climate change http://mathoda.com/2007/09/on-freeman-dysons-opinions-on-climate-change the art, stories, and observations of Ranjit S. Mathoda Tue, 09 Mar 2010 19:13:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Ranjit Mathoda http://mathoda.com/2007/09/on-freeman-dysons-opinions-on-climate-change/comment-page-1#comment-9077 Ranjit Mathoda Wed, 14 May 2008 05:43:03 +0000 http://www.mathoda.com/archives/125#comment-9077 Here's some potentially bad things that can happen if you direct a tremendous amount of resources at a problem you really don't understand: (a) you can forego the use of those resources for problems you really do understand (see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_consensus">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_consensus</a>), (b) you can make the situation worse because of unintended effects of your remedy or because the situation was the opposite of what you thought it was, or (c) you can make the true causes of the situation more difficult to study. Another issue is there are potentially millions of unlikely but disastrous events you are uncertain about; like an asteroid hitting earth or a failure to worship Zeus. How do you divide resources among them? One approach is to expend resources on getting a better understanding but not to take action until your understanding and the cost benefits of your remedy improve. The problem will still be roughly the same in 5 years but your understanding of its real threat hopefully improves significantly. Here’s some potentially bad things that can happen if you direct a tremendous amount of resources at a problem you really don’t understand: (a) you can forego the use of those resources for problems you really do understand (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_consensus), (b) you can make the situation worse because of unintended effects of your remedy or because the situation was the opposite of what you thought it was, or (c) you can make the true causes of the situation more difficult to study. Another issue is there are potentially millions of unlikely but disastrous events you are uncertain about; like an asteroid hitting earth or a failure to worship Zeus. How do you divide resources among them? One approach is to expend resources on getting a better understanding but not to take action until your understanding and the cost benefits of your remedy improve. The problem will still be roughly the same in 5 years but your understanding of its real threat hopefully improves significantly.

]]> By: Uv http://mathoda.com/2007/09/on-freeman-dysons-opinions-on-climate-change/comment-page-1#comment-9076 Uv Tue, 13 May 2008 05:43:27 +0000 http://www.mathoda.com/archives/125#comment-9076 Ron,<br><br>The argument is compelling, but tell me...in the absence of accurate data/models that produce a transparent view of the situation...whats the worse that can happen by directing resources towards consuming/polluting less, and how does that compare with the alternative?<br><br>Definitely thought provoking...but I'm afraid of the way incentives are stacked in this case. <br><br>Uv Ron,

The argument is compelling, but tell me…in the absence of accurate data/models that produce a transparent view of the situation…whats the worse that can happen by directing resources towards consuming/polluting less, and how does that compare with the alternative?

Definitely thought provoking…but I’m afraid of the way incentives are stacked in this case.

Uv

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