mathoda.com

America’s invasion of Iraq was, according to the Bush Administration, premised on the fear of weapons of mass destruction programs in development by Saddam Hussein.  When stockpiles of such weapons were not found, the invasion lost a great deal of support in the world outside of Iraq.

In Iraq, among groups that were repressed by Saddam Hussein’s government, weapons of mass destruction were never perceived as a necessary condition for deposing Saddam.  America’s invasion of Iraq, at the time it occurred, was widely viewed as a positive by Iraqi Kurds and Shiites.

The invasion was opposed by many Sunnis, and many of the insurgents now killing American forces are drawn from and supported by segments of the population that are heavily Sunni.  As long as an insurgency has broad popular support in a large segment of a population, it is very hard to stamp out.

Yet there has always seemed to me to be a contradiction in any minority group supporting the insurgency.  If the insurgency succeeds in driving out American forces, before a government that protects all minority groups is established, the minority groups are the ones that may suffer most.  Sunnis are the group most hated for perceived past repressions, and with the most to lose.  Without a government that respects Sunni rights, Shiites and perhaps Kurds could carve up the lands and power that the Sunnis once held.

Now it appears that some Sunni leaders, witnessing the acts Shiite death squads, have had a change of heart with respect to the presence of American troops in Iraq.  As the NY Times reports (link),

As sectarian violence soars, many Sunni Arab political and religious leaders once staunchly opposed to the American presence here are now saying they need American troops to protect them from the rampages of Shiite militias and Shiite-run government forces.

The pleas from the Sunni Arab leaders have been growing in intensity since an eruption of sectarian bloodletting in February, but they have reached a new pitch in recent days as Shiite militiamen have brazenly shot dead groups of Sunni civilians in broad daylight in Baghdad and other mixed areas of central Iraq.

…

The Sunni Arab leaders say they have no newfound love for the Americans. Many say they still sympathize with the insurgency and despise the Bush administration and the fact that the invasion has helped strengthen the power of neighboring Iran, which backs the ruling Shiite parties.

American forces are apparently trying to stop Shiite militias.  One hopes that such acts will demonstrate to the Sunni population that American forces are not worth attacking and generate sufficient goodwill that the insurgency loses support among at least one large segment of the population that traditionally assisted it.  One also hopes that the nature of the insurgency doesn’t just change, shifting to Shiites who want the Americans out of the country so they can attack Sunnis with impunity.

This entry has been filed under issues, political.